WASHINGTON, D.C. — From Kansas and Iowa to the Carolinas and Florida, President Donald Trump is taking his midterm message on the road this week as the U.S. Senate map tightens.
New numbers this week on the president’s approval rating and handling of the economy are painting a grim picture for Republicans. The trends are especially worrisome for Republicans facing already-tight matchups in just two weeks.
“My rallies are having a huge impact and a positive impact on the Republican Party,” said President Trump.
This week: five states, five Senate battlegrounds and one big problem for President Donald Trump and Republicans.
“The biggest issue is the same one that got Donald Trump elected in 2024, and that’s the economy,” said Dr. Todd Belt, professor and director of the Political Management Master’s Program at George Washington University.
Voter attitudes on the president’s handling of the economy fell from 45% in early 2025 to under 30% now. Trump’s approval rating is down to its lowest ever, between 33% and 36%, according to recent polling.
“When we see the president’s popularity fall below 50%, that’s usually when you’re going to see a lot of seats, at least double digits in the House, be picked up by the opposition party,” said Belt. “What’s even more concerning for the administration and the Republican Party is the map for the Senate is expanding into places that it really shouldn’t be, places where Donald Trump won by heavy double digits, places like Texas, Iowa, Kansas and Alaska.”
Just three months ago, Republicans were slightly favored on the economy, but now, Democrats have a 5-point edge, according to a new Washington Post/ABC News/Ipsos poll. Belt said the economic fallout is impacting the entire Republican Party as more voters connect Trump’s policies to their problems.
“What people are saying is that the tariffs and the war have really had negative consequences on their ability to make ends meet. And it’s the fact that people are making these connections that’s really a problem for Donald Trump,” said Belt.
In the Lone Star State’s closely watched Senate race, oil and gas prices are weighing heavy on voters’ minds. 9-out-of-10 Texans say the war with Iran is responsible for higher oil and gas prices, according to new polling by CBS News.
“This is a big issue in the election in Texas,” said Belt. “Fuel costs are really hampering people’s lives down there.”
Everything’s bigger in the Lone Star State, including the $500 million price tag on ad spending in the race between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton. Talarico is hoping to become the first Democrat elected statewide since 1994.
However, approval ratings for Democrats are also low. But Belt says they have the benefit of being the only alternative.
“The problem for the Democrats is that people don’t like them very much,” said Belt. “Democrats have the enviable position of being the out party and being able to gain those votes.”
According to data from 41 states and the District of Columbia, so far, more than 10 million Americans have already cast their midterm ballots via early voting. That number continues to climb, with early voting now underway in five more states as of Tuesday.
