By Brendan Scanland
WASHINGTON, D.C. — The U.S. Senate is gearing up for what could be a political rollercoaster beginning next week, as the long-awaited budget reconciliation process kicks into high gear.
Last week, the House passed President Trump’s “one, big, beautiful” spending bill — but now it’s up to Senate Republicans — and their new leader, John Thune — to steer it towards the finish line.
This reconciliation process gives Republicans and Majority Leader John Thune (R- SD) a big advantage. It means they can bypass the Senate filibuster and only need a simple majority to pass the package. Democratic support won’t be necessary for Thune, but he does need to address serious concerns about the bill from within his own party.
The House passed it, President Trump wants it, and next week, it’s the Senate’s turn to take a shot at advancing Trump’s “one, big, beautiful” bill — a massive spending package that’s drawing big reactions on both sides of the aisle.
“It’s the big, beautiful bill. But the beautiful is because of all of the things we have. The biggest thing being, I would say, the level of tax cutting that we’re going to be doing,” said President Trump. “We’ll have the lowest tax rate we’ve ever had in the history of our country.”
“I think the Senate is going to get there. I hope they’re going to get there. I think they’re going to have changes. Some will be minor, and some will be, you know, fairly significant,” President Trump said.
“It’s slashing Medicaid more than it ever has been slashed before,” said Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) about the bill. “It’s cruel. It’s heartbreaking. Senate Democrats will continue to expose this devastating plan and fight for American families.”
Next week, Leader Thune will face his first major test — holding together a party divided over spending levels and cuts to Medicaid, which provides health coverage for millions of low-income Americans.
“There are three real holdouts, specifically on Medicaid. You’ve got Susan Collins (R-ME), Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) and Josh Hawley (R-MO) really leading the charge here. And the reason for that is they represent the entire state, not just specific little districts. And so they have concerns affecting their entire populations,” said Dr. Todd Belt, professor and director of the Political Management Master’s Program at George Washington University. “Because of that, the Senate’s going to have a heavier lift on the issue of Medicaid.”
Other GOP senators say the bill doesn’t cut enough. Dr. Belt says it will be a tough balancing act for Leader Thune.
“But on the other hand, there are also senators who think that the spending cuts don’t go far enough and they would like to see even bigger cuts. That’s at odds with those other three. So the question is, how are you going to balance that? Senator Thune hasn’t been in this position yet. He’s going to have to learn on the fly,” said Belt.
Belt says Senate Republicans could break the bill into smaller chunks, potentially into three separate pieces. Doing so could cause headaches for House Speaker Mike Johnson (R- LA) and his razor-thin majority.
“But it’s unlikely that that might be successful because it was really difficult for Speaker Johnson to wrangle the votes just to get the bill over to the Senate,” said Belt.
Budget reconciliation gives Republicans a major advantage — they can bypass the Senate filibuster and pass the package with a simple majority. To do that, Leader Thune cannot lose more than three GOP votes.
President Trump has said he would like to see the legislation clear the Senate by July 4. Likely changes to the legislation in the Senate mean the narrowly divided House would, again, have to pass the spending package.
“The Senate’s going to have to really worry a little bit about what the House would do with the bills it sends over,” said Belt.
