WASHINGTON, D.C. — A new wave of redistricting battles is sweeping across the South.
From Alabama to Tennessee, state leaders have already redrawn new maps — or are still scrambling to do so, right in the heat of primary election season. Democrats and critics of the last-minute maps warn the changes could reshape voting power for years to come.
A U.S. Supreme Court ruling on April 29 has set off a nationwide map war, as Southern red states rush to implement new congressional lines, and in some cases, even push back primary elections.
The Supreme Court decision in April weakened part of the Voting Rights Act in a separate Louisiana case — where the court ruled the state could eliminate a minority district from the map.
Experts say majority-minority districts have been a touchstone of the voting rights revolution for roughly six decades. The court’s decision opened the door for other Southern states to redraw districts that were once challenged as discriminatory.
“Basically, further gutting the Voting Rights Act and allowing states primarily in the South to get rid of primarily African-American majority seats, carving them up and adding another seat to Republicans,” said Matthew Dallek, a professor at the George Washington University Graduate School of Political Management. “We’re seeing that happening in Louisiana, Alabama already.”
Dallek predicts that Republicans could see an 8-10 seat advantage as a result of the mid-decade redistricting arms race that began with President Donald Trump’s calls for Texas Republicans to redistrict last year.
“The expectation, if you’re looking at least on paper, is that Republicans now have an, let’s say, 8 to 10 seat advantage based on these redistricting wars that have been playing out over the last few months,” Dallek said.
Dallek added that the redistricting blitz can also carry unintended consequences for Republicans down the road in high-turnout elections. Furthermore, even in the short term, there’s no guarantee that all of the estimated GOP gains will come to fruition.
“Even though on paper, it looks like you can say, well, it’s even, or Republicans have an eight or ten seat advantage, we don’t really know if that’s going to translate on Election Day. Whatever happens, it’s likely not going to translate in that way,” Dallek said.
Regardless, Southern red states continue to move quickly to redraw congressional maps.
A new Florida map could boost Republicans in several Democratic-held districts. Louisiana is reworking its map after delaying primaries. And in Tennessee, there are already three lawsuits challenging a map that erased the state’s only Democratic U.S. House district. On Monday, the Supreme Court gave the go-ahead for Alabama to use a map expected to give Republicans another seat by cutting one of the state’s two majority-Black districts.
Meanwhile, Virginia’s Democrat-friendly map remains tied up in court after the state Supreme Court struck it down — a map Democrats hoped would help them pick up four House seats this fall.
“Democrats had hoped, they were expecting to pick up four seats from that redrawing, and that may be going away,” Dallek said.
Virginia Democrats filed an emergency appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court Monday — asking justices to restore the map. It’s one of the few options Democrats have left, this late in the game.
“Democrats are kind of stuck between a rock and a hard place,” Dallek said.
Democratic leaders in Maryland and New York have pushed back against their party’s request to redistrict — which means this late in the game, Democrats appear to be focusing on strategy and messaging, rather than mapmaking.
“The calendar is pretty unforgiving at this point as we head into the summer. Democrats will have to continue on the bread and butter of campaigning. But also, importantly, trying to nominate candidates that are going to be good fits for the district, that can win a general election in a purple seat,” said Dallek.
