WASHINGTON, D.C. — A successful Democratic redistricting effort in Virginia on Tuesday could reignite a political domino effect.
Analysts say the win for Democrats likely gives them the edge in the redistricting arms race that first began with Texas Republicans last year. Now, the GOP is scrambling to respond.
Out of just over three million Virginia voters, more than 51% voted “yes” on Tuesday to redraw their state’s congressional lines in favor of Democrats.
“Trump and Republicans launched this unprecedented gerrymandering scheme,” said Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y. “We stopped them in New Hampshire, stopped them in Nebraska, stopped them in Missouri, stopped them in Indiana, won a seat in Utah, pushed them back in Ohio, a big victory in Virginia.”
The new map is expected to give Democrats the edge in four midterm races this November, potentially landing them 10 out of Virginia’s 11 seats in the House of Representatives, where Republicans currently hold a razor-thin majority.
“This is a real arms race where everybody is trying to get as much as they can out of those districts,” said Dr. Todd Belt, professor and director of the Political Management Master’s Program at George Washington University.
With legal challenges underway, the new map is not a done deal quite yet. A Southern Virginia judge stepped in Wednesday and ordered the results not be certified — citing misleading language on the ballot and improper procedures by state lawmakers.
President Donald Trump called the vote in Virginia “rigged” — and criticized both mail-in ballots and the wording of the referendum in a series of online posts.
An expected appeal could set up a legal fight, impacting whether — and when — the new map takes effect.
Regardless, the tit-for-tat continues. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) is now facing pressure to redraw the Sunshine State’s congressional districts to offset the recent Democratic gains.
So far, analysts say Democrats have a net gain of one seat in the redistricting arms race that began last year.
“Florida has the right and the intention to do it, and my view is that they should,” said House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La.
“We’re going to keep the pressure on them in Florida,” said Leader Jeffries.
Redistricting in Florida could carry repercussions for Republicans, Belt warned.
“They’ve already done it once and it’s pretty gerrymandered to help Republicans. If they try to shape those margins even closer, that might actually help Democrats in a high turnout election,” said Belt.
“I think this should be done once a decade,” said Rep. Nick Langworthy, R-N.Y., who is not a fan of the mid-decade redrawing.
The current arms race gained momentum last year, when President Trump called on Texas Republicans to redraw the maps to Republicans’ benefit. The domino effect ultimately led to new maps in Texas, California, Utah, North Carolina and likely Virginia as well.
“He made a political decision. He encouraged local Texans to do it. It’s local decision making- Indiana told the president ‘no,’” said Langworthy when asked if he thought it was wrong of President Trump to spearhead the effort in Texas. “Every state has been a different circumstance that’s led them to that moment. But I believe this should be a once a decade process.”
With just over six months until the midterms, analysts predict Florida will likely be the final front of this redistricting battle.
“I think we’ve seen just about the end of this with the exception of Florida,” Belt said.
