WASHINGTON, D.C. – Could control of Congress get flipped in 2026? It’s a possibility. It’s still relatively early before the midterm elections but we are seeing an exodus of members planning to leave congress once their term is up. A political scientist said it’s an opportunity for Democrats to pick up some seats.
In the House, where Republicans hold a slim majority, some Republican members are throwing their hat in the ring for governor races in places like Michigan and Florida. A handful of House Democrats are looking to leave their chamber and try for the Senate as several Democrats in battleground states are headed for the exit. Rep. Josh Gottehimer (D- NJ) and Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D- NJ) are seeking to run for New Jersey’s Governor. Rep. Chris Pappas (D- NH) is running for Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D- NH) Senate seat. Rep. Gerry Connolly (D- VA) will not seek re-election. Rep. Haley Stevens (D- MI) will run for Sen. Gary Peters’ (D-MI) Senate seat. Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D- IL) will not seek re-election. Rep. Bryon Donalds (R- FL) will run for Florida’s Governor. Rep. John Rose (R- TN) will run for Tennessee’s Governor. Rep. John James (R- MI) will run for Michigan’s Governor. Rep. Andy Barr (R-KY) will run for Kentucky’s Governor. Senators Dick Durbin (D- IL), Gary Peters (D- MI), Jeanne Shaheen (D- NH), Mitch McConnell (R- KY) and Rep. Tina Smith (R- MN) are retiring from public office.
We asked Dr. Todd Belt, a professor and director of political management at George Washington University, how this could impact the next big fight for congress:
“We expect the President’s party to lose seats in the House and Senate in the mid-term elections,” said Dr. Belt.
He adds the number of Republicans up for re-election outnumber the Democrats in the Senate, which is a golden opportunity for the Democrats to win back control. But it might not be that easy.
“However, a lot of those Republicans up for reelection are in deep red states and it’s the Democrats who are in states that could float one way or the other,” said Dr. Belt. “So the Democrats are going to have a real difficult time holding onto those seats, especially with some of those vacancies they’ll have. Open seats are harder to defend than somebody who is an incumbent.”
We are also looking out for is a potential shift in leadership, especially among Senate Democrats. Senator Dick Durbin (D- IL), the number 2 Senator, will not seek re-election. It’s a huge opportunity for Democrats looking to climb in ranks, but there’s already one name being tossed around as a potential contender.
“A lot of Democrats in the Senate are really frustrated with their minority leader Sen. Chuck Schumer (D- NY) especially what happened with the funding bill which he sort of collapsed on. They’re looking for new leadership. They want younger leadership. Sen. Brian Schatz (D- HI) is someone to look out for. Some people are already getting behind him trying to push him up to that number 2 position.”
