WASHINGTON, D.C. — Republicans are heading toward November with new questions about party loyalty, electability and whether President Trump’s influence is helping — or hurting — the GOP’s chances in key races.
The latest shakeup comes out of Texas, where one of the party’s biggest political battles just ended with a dramatic upset.
In a major Lone Star State shakeup, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has defeated longtime Sen. John Cornyn in the Republican Senate runoff after a bitter and expensive battle, with Paxton’s victory coming just days after a late endorsement by President Donald Trump.
“President Trump is a leader of our party, and his endorsement in this most power is the most powerful force in politics,” Paxton said.
“It’s a real purge of the Republican Party. And if you don’t support the president, you no longer have a seat at the table, literally,” said Todd Belt, professor and director of the Political Management Master’s Program at George Washington University.
Now, Paxton will face Democratic state Rep. James Talarico in November. Paxton heads to the general election under the shadow of multiple scandals and allegations, something Democrats believe makes him far more vulnerable than Cornyn.
With massive amounts of campaign dollars already spent in bruising primaries — and slipping approval numbers for the president — Republicans could face even bigger problems in November.
“The election is largely a referendum on the president’s popularity,” Belt said.
And that popularity is trending toward a historic low for President Trump. The The New York Times Poll Tracker, a daily average of polls conducted by dozens of different organizations, lists Trump’s approval rating at 38% and disapproval at 59% on May 27.
“When the president is what we call ‘underwater,’ meaning that his disapproval numbers are higher than his approval numbers, as Donald Trump’s are now, then we usually see the other party pick up double-digit seats in the House of Representatives,” Belt said.
“The election’s not going to be held today, it’s going to be held on Nov. 3,” said Rep. Dan Meuser, R-Pa.
Republicans insist it’s far too early to count them out. As they work to refine their messaging, they’re hoping global events, like the war with Iran, resolve soon.
“The message is get out the vote. Republicans did not show up in the primary. We have to understand the unbelievable contrast between them in the majority versus us,” Meuser said. “And the president’s a winner. We’re going to be on a winning track. Prices will be coming down. Certainly, gasoline will be coming down. The Iran conquest of their terrorist regime will be finalized. I believe in that. That’ll set us up well for the midterms.”
