By Brendan Scanland
WASHINGTON, D.C. — The new 119th Congress will kick things off in Washington on Friday with a vote for Speaker of the House.
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R- LA) received the unofficial go-ahead to retain the gavel from Republicans in a conference vote last fall. It remains to be seen if that support will carry Speaker Johnson over the finish line in Friday’s official vote on the House floor.
The House cannot conduct any business until a Speaker is elected, as was the case last January when it took former Speaker Kevin McCarthy four days and 15 ballots to become Speaker of a narrowly divided House.
With a razor-thin majority again this year, the question is whether history will repeat itself for Mike Johnson.
One Republican, Thomas Massie (R- KY) is pledging to oppose to Johnson, and several others have not committed to support him. The holdouts against Johnson, mostly hardline conservatives and budget hawks, have expressed their disappointment with Johnson’s handling of government spending during the time he has served as Speaker.
An already razor-thin House majority for Republicans is expected to be even smaller when members are sworn in Friday. Former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R- FL) won reelection but resigned last month, bringing the total to 434 House members.
Johnson will need a majority of 434, or 218 votes, and can afford only one GOP defection, assuming every member is present and votes for a candidate.
“One more (defection) would put it into a 50-50 deadlock, 217 to 217 and that would mean he could not become Speaker,” said Dr. Todd Belt, Professor and Director of the Political Management Master’s Program at George Washington University. “Now, this changes, though, if people vote present. If they do that, then that reduces the denominator and therefore the number of votes that Speaker Johnson would have to have to retain his speakership.”
Johnson has received the endorsement of President-elect Donald Trump and has support from almost all House Republicans.
“Speaker Johnson has my full support. He has worked tirelessly and hard and in a principled manner,” said Rep. Glenn “GT” Thompson (R- PA) in late December.
“He deserves another term of his own, a full term to get the job done,” said Rep. Nick Langworthy (R- NY) in November.
However, it only takes a handful of Republican defections to thwart Johnson’s path to success and repeat the chaos that ensued in January of 2023.
“Speaker McCarthy was eventually able to become Speaker by cutting a bunch of deals during that time. I don’t think Speaker Johnson’s going to let that happen this time. He is going to get everything lined up before the vote so that we don’t have this drama and embarrassment for the party coming in to having both the House, the Senate and the Presidency,” said Belt. “They want to hit the ground running and they don’t want any perceptions of not being able to govern.”
Republicans are eager to get the 119th Congress in motion as soon as possible. Many of them believe they have a golden opportunity with control of the House, Senate and White House and say there is no time to waste.
“I think you’re going to have a period of Republican unity that we didn’t experience in the past term,” said Langworthy.
