By Brendan Scanland
WASHINGTON, D.C. — Tensions between Israel and Iran continue to boil, after four days of attacks between the two Middle East foes.
The impact of the conflict could stretch beyond the region and into the wallets of Americans.
Another wave of missile attacks launched by Iran early Monday killed at least eight people in Israel. It’s the latest violent attack just four days after Israel targeted top Iranian military leaders, nuclear scientists and facilities.
Now, Israel is urging hundreds of thousands of people in Iran’s capital of Tehran to evacuate — signaling more strikes are on the way.
So far, more than 220 people have been killed in Iran and 24 in Israel, with more than 500 injured. Since Friday, Iran has fired over 370 missiles and hundreds of drones — raising fears of a full-scale war.
“I’d say Iran is not winning this war. And they should talk immediately before it’s too late,” said President Trump on Monday.
“What happens in the Middle East is certainly concerning. It can impact the flow of oil or the production of oil, something that we consume over 100 million barrels worldwide every single day,” said Patrick De Haan, Head of Petroleum Analysis at GasBuddy.
The fighting drove up oil prices over the weekend, but in a surprising turn—
“It had backed off of that completely and actually oil prices are now down slightly, close to 2%,” said De Haan. “I would expect this to only have a very low-level impact on prices.”
De Haan says although the national average is likely to rise five to fifteen cents per gallon over the next week or two— “Those increases may revert eventually to decreases ahead of July 4,” he said.
The reason for that, De Haan suggested, is because he thinks a vulnerable Iran may soon come to the table seeking a deal, thereby cooling tensions in the region.
“Iran is in a weaker position here. And essentially with that weaker position, there’s less likelihood that Iran is going to essentially shoot itself in the foot,” said De Haan. “The market is betting that Iran, with its limited options, will probably seek some sort of agreement or maybe even come back to the trading table when it comes to the U.S. and its nuclear trade talks.”
De Haan says even with the impacts of the Israel-Iran conflict factored in, gas prices this summer are still expected to be at multi-year lows.
“Oil did jump, but it’s still substantially lower than back in 2022 when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine caused oil to spike to $120 a barrel. What the market is saying is — this is a concern. This is something worth monitoring, but it is not going to lead to record gas prices,” said De Haan. “Even with the impacts factored in, gas prices this summer are still likely to be at some of their multi-year lows.”
President Trump said over the weekend that the U.S. is not directly involved in Israel’s military strikes against Iran, but added, “It’s possible we could get involved.”